<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Retention-Led Growth™]]></title><description><![CDATA[A monthly newsletter for DTC brands: actionable insights on CRO, retention, and subscription growth.]]></description><link>https://www.retentionledgrowth.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8sL!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F57697c74-fcff-48b0-a74b-ba83bd90a69d_813x813.png</url><title>Retention-Led Growth™</title><link>https://www.retentionledgrowth.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 09 May 2026 12:05:29 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Marcin]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[marcin@retentionledgrowth.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[marcin@retentionledgrowth.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Marcin Mleczko]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Marcin Mleczko]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[marcin@retentionledgrowth.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[marcin@retentionledgrowth.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Marcin Mleczko]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[advertorials aren't just for acquisition]]></title><description><![CDATA[how to increase LTV before purchase]]></description><link>https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/advertorials-arent-just-for-acquisition</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/advertorials-arent-just-for-acquisition</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Marcin Mleczko]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2026 09:49:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s been a while: I went deep into advertorial funnels for DTC brands running cold traffic on Meta. Building presell pages, testing post-click experiences, mapping what actually converts strangers into buyers. Post-andromeda this started making a lot more sense. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif" width="341" height="480" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:480,&quot;width&quot;:341,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:596682,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/gif&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M0JY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F723b8b9d-9420-4ad3-b4ac-b3bb81779f6b_341x480.gif 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Today I wanted to talk about retention in a way I haven&#8217;t seen anyone discuss.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Retention-Led Growth&#8482; is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h4>post-purchase education impacts retention. We all know this.</h4><p>Email flows that set expectations. Inserts that explain proper usage. Onboarding sequences that prevent the &#8220;this isn&#8217;t working&#8221; churn at day 14.</p><p>But here&#8217;s what almost nobody talks about: you can move that education before the purchase.</p><p>A well-built presell page does the same job as your post-purchase onboarding - it just does it earlier.</p><p>When someone reads 1,200 words explaining the mechanism behind your product, the realistic timeframe for results, why consistency matters - they&#8217;re already onboarded before they buy.</p><p>They&#8217;re not expecting miracles in a week - they understand why the product works. They know what success actually looks like.</p><p>That&#8217;s better for conversion AND retention / LTV.</p><div><hr></div><h4>three reasons this creates higher-quality customers:</h4><ol><li><p><strong>Self-selection.</strong> Price-sensitive impulse buyers bounce off long-form content. They won&#8217;t read 1,200 words. Good. The people who do convert are information-seekers - they want to understand before they commit. Those customers stick around.</p></li><li><p><strong>Expectation alignment.</strong> Most DTC ads overpromise. &#8220;Results in 7 days!&#8221; Then reality hits at day 14 and they&#8217;re gone. A presell that explains realistic timelines closes that gap before purchase, not after. The difference is simple: someone who buys because they understand why something works has reasons to stay. Someone who buys because of a flashy ad has hopes that it works. Reasons create patience. Hopes create refund requests.</p></li><li><p><strong>Value framing.</strong> Educated buyers don&#8217;t see your product as a commodity. They&#8217;re not comparing you on price alone. They bought because of something specific about your approach - and that&#8217;s harder to replace than a discount.</p></li></ol><div><hr></div><h4>there&#8217;s data behind this.</h4><p>ProfitWell analysed millions of subscriptions and found that customers acquired through heavy discounting churn 50% more than full-price buyers. The acquisition method shapes customer quality.</p><p>Whenever I&#8217;ve looked at LTV of customers acquired via presells vs via PDP, I&#8217;ve seen a clear difference. When you build detailed mechanism explanations and more realistic timeline guidance into your pre-purchase experience LTV improves.</p><p>The perfect timing for this sort of education happens BEFORE someone buys, while their expectations are still forming.</p><p>Same principle applies to creative. The ad and the landing experience that brought someone in predicts how they&#8217;ll behave afterward.</p><p>Acquire someone through &#8220;70% OFF TODAY ONLY&#8221; and visible results in 7 days guaranteed, and you&#8217;ll likely get a high-churn risk customer. </p><p>Acquire someone through content that educates them on why your mechanism works, the 90-day benefits timeline, etc and you get someone with much better reasons to stay.</p><div><hr></div><h4>patience</h4><p>Unfortunately, as with all things-retention - you won&#8217;t see the impact in the next weekly report. It&#8217;s a long-term signal and a patience test. </p><p>You&#8217;d need to set up cohort tracking by acquisition path - presell traffic vs. direct-to-PDP. Compare 60-day and 90-day repurchase rates. </p><p>But I&#8217;d bet real money you&#8217;ll see meaningful differences.</p><div><hr></div><p>I&#8217;ve been writing about this stuff weekly - funnel breakdowns, post-click psychology, what&#8217;s actually working in cold traffic - in a newsletter called <em><a href="https://letters.goodadvertorials.com">The Advertorial Letter</a></em>.</p><p>If any of this was interesting, that&#8217;s where it lives: </p><p><a href="https://letters.goodadvertorials.com">https://letters.goodadvertorials.com </a></p><p>&#8212; Marcin</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Retention-Led Growth&#8482; is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Subscription offer psychology: micro-fear, micro‑risk and micro-pain]]></title><description><![CDATA[How to use compelling copy to move the needle on sub-uptake metrics]]></description><link>https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/subscription-offer-psychology-micro</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/subscription-offer-psychology-micro</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Marcin Mleczko]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 23 Jul 2025 10:49:59 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f364e490-790a-45b1-9687-493a402d6fc3_1920x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>A still&#8209;in&#8209;review <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5338643">working paper</a> just dropped</strong>: in an email multivariate test for a pet&#8209;food subscription, swapping the control headline <strong>&#8220;Save&#8239;35&#8239;%&#8221;</strong> for the variant <strong>&#8220;Never forget again&#8221;</strong> generated <strong>+968 net subscribers and +$155&#8239;k revenue within five months. </strong></p><p>The researchers tested five email angles:</p><ol><li><p>Price only (&#8220;Save with subscriptions&#8221;)</p></li><li><p>Convenience (&#8220;Let us do the heavy lifting&#8221;)</p></li><li><p>Reminder (&#8220;Never forget with subscriptions&#8221;)</p></li><li><p>Safety (COVID contactless)</p></li><li><p>No-surprise (&#8220;You&#8217;ll get a heads-up before every shipment&#8221;)</p></li></ol><p>Results after five re-orders:</p><ul><li><p>Reminder message: +4.7&#8239;% first&#8209;order lift, <strong>+7.7&#8239;% by the fifth order</strong>.</p></li><li><p>Convenience &amp; No-surprise also beat price on retention.</p></li><li><p>Pure price messaging had the worst 5th-order retention of any tested frame.</p></li></ul><h3>Why &#8220;You&#8217;ll Forget&#8221; Outperforms &#8220;You&#8217;ll Save&#8221;</h3><p><strong>Tangible pain &gt; abstract gain. </strong></p><p>Successful subscription services tap into specific customer anxieties and transform them into compelling value propositions. </p><p>The key is identifying the underlying pain that drives purchase behavior, then crafting a subscription promise and swipeable copy hook that addresses that specific concern with credible authority.</p><p>Most subscription businesses focus on convenience and savings, but the highest-converting offers dig deeper into customer psychology. </p><p>They surface micro-risks and micro-pains that customers experience but might not actively think about - then position the subscription as the effortless solution.</p><h3>1. Forgetfulness, stock-outs and panic</h3><p><strong>Pain</strong>: Late-night "oh no" moments when you realize you're completely out of something essential.</p><p><strong>Promise:</strong> Auto-delivery before you run out<br><br><strong>Hook:</strong> "Never make an 11 p.m. litter-box dash again."</p><p>This is perhaps the strongest psychological driver because everyone has experienced the frustration of running out at the worst possible moment. Pet owners know the specific dread of discovering empty food bowls at bedtime. Parents understand the panic of realizing they're out of diapers during a blowout. The subscription becomes an insurance policy against these predictable crises.</p><h3>2. Hygiene, health-risks, safety, invisible countdown</h3><p><strong>Pain</strong>: Bacteria in expired cosmetics and the fear of using products past their safe expiration.</p><p><strong>Promise:</strong> Fresh replacements every 90 days</p><p><strong>Hook:</strong> "Mascara past 90 days is a bacteria magnet - get a fresh wand on auto-pilot."</p><p><strong>Credibility signal:</strong> <a href="https://www.fda.gov/cosmetics/cosmetic-products/eye-cosmetic-safety">FDA guidance noting mascara should be tossed after 3-4 months</a></p><p>Beauty products carry invisible expiration dates that most consumers ignore until they develop an eye infection. The subscription transforms this anxiety into automated safety. You're not just buying mascara - you're buying peace of mind that you'll never accidentally poison your eyes with expired makeup.</p><h3>3. Efficacy degradation, performance fade</h3><p><strong>Pain</strong>: Filters clog, beans stale, and performance slowly degrades without you noticing.</p><p><strong>Promise:</strong> Timed swaps keep peak performance</p><p><strong>Hook:</strong> "Fresh-roasted beans on your doorstep the week they're ground."</p><p><strong>Credibility signal:</strong> National Coffee Association research showing flavor drops after 2-4 weeks</p><p>Quality-conscious consumers understand that most products perform best when fresh but struggle to track optimal replacement timing. Coffee enthusiasts know that beans lose flavor after roasting, but few remember to order new bags at the perfect moment. The subscription becomes a performance optimization service.</p><h3>4. Maintenance, overwhelm, mental load</h3><p><strong>Pain</strong>: HVAC filter dates slip your mind, and routine maintenance becomes a source of guilt.</p><p><strong>Promise:</strong> Delivery doubles as a calendar ping</p><p><strong>Hook: </strong>"Air-quality reminder: we ship a new filter every 90 days."</p><p><strong>Credibility signal:</strong> EPA recommendations for 60-90-day changes (see <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq">EPA: Indoor Air Quality</a>).</p><p>Home maintenance creates an ongoing mental burden. Homeowners know they should change filters regularly but rarely remember until the system starts underperforming. The subscription removes the cognitive load while positioning itself as a helpful reminder service rather than just a product delivery.</p><h3>5. Doctor-recommended angles, the authority gap</h3><p><strong>Pain</strong>: Uncertainty about when to replace tools and products based on professional guidance.</p><p><strong>Promise:</strong> We sync to professional guidance</p><p><strong>Hook:</strong> "Dentists say toss your toothbrush after 3-4 months&#8212;we'll handle it."</p><p><strong>Credibility signal:</strong> see <a href="https://www.ada.org/resources/research/science-and-research-institute/oral-health-topics/toothbrushes">ADA: Toothbrush Care</a>.</p><p>Most people want to follow professional recommendations but struggle to remember or track the timing. Dental patients know they should replace toothbrushes regularly but rarely do it on schedule. The subscription becomes a compliance service that helps customers follow expert advice effortlessly.</p><h3>6. Convenience, time-saving, chore-elimination</h3><p><strong>Pain</strong>: Reordering feels like a recurring chore that steals weekend time.</p><p><strong>Promise:</strong> One click, zero Saturday errands</p><p><strong>Hook:</strong> "Click once, free up 30 minutes every weekend."</p><p><strong>Credibility signal:</strong> Self-evident value proposition</p><p>Busy professionals view routine reordering as friction in their optimized lives. The time spent researching, comparing prices, and placing orders adds up. The subscription becomes a time-buying service that trades a small upfront decision for ongoing time savings.</p><h3>7. Health safeguarding, risk prevention</h3><p><strong>Pain</strong>: Contact-lens infections and other health risks from overusing disposable medical products.</p><p><strong>Promise:</strong> Fresh products arrive on medical schedule</p><p><strong>Hook:</strong> "Rx lenses arrive, no risky over-wear."</p><p><strong>Credibility signal:</strong> CDC infection-prevention guidelines (see: <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/contactlenses/index.html">CDC: Healthy Contact Lens Wear</a>).</p><p>Health-conscious consumers understand that medical products have strict replacement schedules but often push boundaries to save money. Contact lens wearers know monthly lenses should be discarded after 30 days but frequently stretch them longer. The subscription becomes a health compliance service.</p><h2>The Psychology Formula That Converts</h2><p>The highest-performing subscription offers follow a four-part psychological formula:</p><ol><li><p><strong>Surface the micro-pain </strong>- identify the specific anxiety or hassle customers experience</p></li><li><p><strong>Promise effortless resolution </strong>- position the subscription as automated relief</p></li><li><p><strong>Craft swipeable copy </strong>- create messaging that immediately resonates with the pain point</p></li><li><p><strong>Add credible authority </strong>- support claims with professional or institutional backing if possible</p></li></ol><p>This formula works because it transforms purchasing from a rational decision into an emotional relief mechanism. Customers aren't just buying products - they're buying freedom from worry, guilt, and inconvenience.</p><h2>Implementation strategy</h2><p>Start by mapping your product to one of the seven pain points. Ask yourself: What micro-anxiety does our product solve? What small but recurring frustration do our customers experience? What professional recommendation supports our replacement timing? </p><p>Then, <strong>search through your customer reviews</strong>. I often find happy subscribers mentioning &#8216;never running out&#8217;&#8217; (avoiding micro-fear and micro-pain), but rarely the savings. </p><p>When you nail this psychology, subscription uptake stops being about price or convenience and starts being about emotional relief. And emotional relief converts at rates that rational benefits simply cannot match.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[A strategic approach to CRO that actually works]]></title><description><![CDATA[(what to test or optimize)]]></description><link>https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/a-strategic-approach-to-cro-that</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/a-strategic-approach-to-cro-that</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Marcin Mleczko]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 04 Dec 2024 18:31:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h4>Don&#8217;t start with random tests</h4><p>The first step in any effective CRO process is to focus on strategic opportunities. </p><p>You want to identify the specific points in your funnel where improvements will have the biggest impact on core metrics like AOV, LTV or conversion rates&#8212;rather than jumping into tests without direction.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif" width="480" height="342" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:342,&quot;width&quot;:480,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;Jimmy Fallon Wow GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="Jimmy Fallon Wow GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" title="Jimmy Fallon Wow GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e6tG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_lossy/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1841647b-ce24-4461-845d-02fcb546ea64_480x342.gif 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">&#8216;Gut instinct&#8217; CRO </figcaption></figure></div><h4>Find the leak points</h4><p>If you&#8217;re focusing on Ecom, you can pull your closed-funnel data from one of the standard reports in GA4: &#8216;Purchase Journey&#8217;. This will give you user counts at each stage of the ecom funnel. </p><p>I like to then run it through my calculator to pinpoint the largest leakages in the funnel (simply multiply user counts by AOV for each stage) and benchmark it against competitors in the industry. </p><p>This allows me to prioritize areas for testing and optimization that can generate the highest revenue gains.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png" width="728" height="202" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:404,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:728,&quot;bytes&quot;:130243,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3pdn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe66a3672-1a37-4c51-9f5f-eb95504a90a2_1782x494.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>In the example above, the biggest opportunity lies in improving the drop-off between PDP and add to cart (ATC) stages. </p><p>But this higher drop-off can be caused by a variety of factors&#8212;ranging from unclear messaging to poor page design or even a lack of urgency. In order to narrow it down, you need to understand the customer problem behind it. </p><h4>What&#8217;s the customer problem?</h4><p>By asking yourself the following questions you can often uncover actionable insights:</p><ul><li><p><strong>What&#8217;s the problem?</strong> (customers are dropping off from PDPs before adding products to their cart)</p></li><li><p><strong>Who is impacted?</strong> (primarily first-time visitors or mobile users)</p></li><li><p><strong>Where does this problem negatively impact growth?</strong> (the drop-off is leading to lower mobile conversion rates and fewer ATC actions)</p></li><li><p><strong>Why does this problem occur? </strong>(CTA is not visible to most users on mobile as it's placed too far down the page)</p></li></ul><p>To diagnose the "why," you can use tools like heatmaps and heuristic analysis to gain deeper insights into how users interact with the page.</p><p>For example:</p><ul><li><p><strong>Heatmaps</strong> may show that users aren&#8217;t scrolling far enough to see the ATC button, indicating that critical content or CTAs are not visible on smaller mobile screens.</p></li><li><p><strong>Click maps</strong> might reveal that users are interacting with images or variant options but not completing actions, possibly due to confusion about selecting product variations like size or color.</p></li><li><p><strong>Heuristic analysis</strong> (a usability review) could uncover issues such as missing trust signals like reviews or badges, or overly complex product descriptions that overwhelm visitors.</p></li></ul><p>By identifying these friction points using user behavior data and usability analysis, you can clarify the problem and design focused tests to address it.</p><p>Once you&#8217;ve gathered insights&#8212;such as identifying high PDP drop-offs&#8212;and explored the possible causes, you can start developing targeted solutions.</p><h4>Is this a test or an optimization?</h4><p>Some insights from your research are so obvious, they don&#8217;t need validation with testing. </p><p>There&#8217;s a difference between <strong>experiments</strong>&#8212;where you&#8217;re trying something fundamentally new with some risk involved&#8212;and <strong>optimizations</strong>, which are smaller tweaks that make what you already have work better.</p><p>Fixing broken links, shortening overly complex forms, or improving mobile accessibility aren&#8217;t things you need to A/B test. </p><h4><strong>Generating testable solutions</strong></h4><p>In our case, heuristic analysis and heatmap data suggest a need to focus on improving CTA visibility, enhancing social proof and urgency triggers, and streamlining the variant selection process.</p><p>For each of these areas, solutions can draw from proven best practices or tactics that have consistently delivered results in similar scenarios. This ensures that your efforts are both strategic and grounded in data-driven insights, maximizing the likelihood of success.</p><ul><li><p>Testing sticky headers can keep the ATC button in constant view, reducing friction and guiding users toward action as they scroll. </p></li><li><p>Incorporating real-time purchase indicators or scarcity messages leverages decision-making triggers, encouraging faster actions and minimizing cart abandonment. </p></li><li><p>Streamlining variant selection reduces cognitive load, making it easier for users to progress through the buying process with fewer barriers.</p></li></ul><h4>Prioritizing solutions with ICE</h4><p>Once you have solution ideas, the next step is evaluating them using the <strong>ICE framework</strong> (I = Impact; C = Confidence; E = Ease):</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif" width="480" height="245" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:245,&quot;width&quot;:480,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1192914,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/gif&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YWTd!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2aff64a7-4b49-4a72-804d-0130068b964d_480x245.gif 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Impact</strong> <strong>&#8212; how much will this solution move the needle on your primary metric?</strong> </p><ul><li><p>High impact solution &#8212; sticky header to keep the ATC button visible at all times. If users aren&#8217;t scrolling far enough to see the CTA, making it persistent could significantly reduce friction and improve ATC rates.</p></li><li><p>Low impact solution &#8212; would be changing the button color on the Add-to-Cart CTA. Unless the current button color is unreadable or blends into the background, this is unlikely to create a noticeable lift in conversions.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Confidence</strong> &#8212; <strong>how sure are you that this solution will work based on user data or past results?</strong> </p><ul><li><p>High confidence solution &#8212;if heatmaps and clickmaps showed that users are getting stuck interacting with variants but not completing the action, then streamlining variant selection by simplifying dropdowns would likely be a high confidence solution. </p></li><li><p>Low confidence solution &#8212; adding an animation to the ATC button. While it could make the button more noticeable, there&#8217;s no strong evidence to suggest it would meaningfully influence user behavior. </p></li></ul><p><strong>Ease</strong> <strong>&#8212; how easy is this solution to implement, considering design and development effort?</strong></p><ul><li><p>High ease &#8212; updating the placement of the CTA by moving it above the fold on mobile. This is a simple layout change that doesn&#8217;t require new assets or advanced development.</p></li><li><p>Low ease &#8212; creating a dynamic 'Only 3 left in stock' scarcity widget for product pages, which requires integration with your inventory system.</p></li></ul><h4>Putting it all together</h4><p>Using the ICE framework, you can weigh your ideas across these three dimensions to prioritize what to test first. </p><p>Start with high-impact, high-confidence, and low-effort changes to maximize early wins while allocating resources strategically for larger initiatives.</p><p>As traffic allows, expand your focus&#8212;testing different parts of the funnel simultaneously, and assessing performance regularly to uncover new areas for improvement. </p><p>Treat CRO as a continuous cycle of experimentation and iteration, identifying fresh customer problems, designing new solutions, and refining the user journey. Staying consistent is the key here.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Retention-Led Growth&#8482;! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The ultimate DTC winback guide]]></title><description><![CDATA[how to bring customers back and maximize LTV]]></description><link>https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/how-9-figure-dtc-brands-think-about</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/how-9-figure-dtc-brands-think-about</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Marcin Mleczko]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 20 Jan 2024 13:13:52 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/26b1d248-5b54-44b1-bc16-f347d388fe6b_1200x628.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While customer retention strategies focus on retaining existing customers who may be at risk of churning, customer win-back is about reacquiring customers who have already left.</p><p>It's a process triggered after a customer hasn't purchased in some time. The goal is simple: get them to buy again.</p><p>Now, you won&#8217;t get all of your lost customers back. In fact, you will lose most of them. </p><p>But there are three reasons why you should at least test high-quality winback:</p><ol><li><p>Those customers already <strong>demonstrated a need for the product</strong>, making them better prospects than cold.</p></li><li><p>They are more familiar with your brand, so you can <strong>skip brand awareness</strong> and focus on making your offers attractive.</p></li><li><p>You have <strong>data about your customers</strong> that you could be using to craft much better winback campaigns.</p></li></ol><p>Consider this. Over 10 years ago, in 2013, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/21/business/media/time-warner-cable-ad-campaign-aims-at-regaining-customers.html">Time Warner invested more than $50 million</a> on broadcast, print, online, and direct mail for a marketing campaign that specifically targeted ex-subscribers who had left for competitors, especially those who left for Verizon. It was a calculated move to disrupt competitor growth and regain market share. </p><p>Their <strong>campaign featured actual subscribers, explaining why they came back to the company</strong>.</p><p>Their offer to the ex-subscribers? <strong>A 30-day money-back guarantee</strong>. &#8220;If you don&#8217;t see that we&#8217;ve improved our service, we&#8217;ll send you your money back&#8221;.</p><p>Now that&#8217;s a strong offer.</p><p>Think about what kind of win-back message would you respond to.</p><p>A generic &#8220;<em>We&#8217;ve missed you!</em>&#8221; email with a 10% off coupon?</p><p>Or a personalized email that references your churn reason, shows how the problem has been fixed and includes an irresistible offer, too? Or all that in a personal video from the founder? Or in a handwritten note?</p><h3>3 keys to winback</h3><p>Winning back customers is like fixing a broken relationship and its success depends on three things:</p><ul><li><p>how good or bad things were before the split (<strong>your customers&#8217; experiences, issues and feelings in the first &#8216;lifetime&#8217;</strong>).</p></li><li><p>the direct reason of the split (<strong>the churn reason</strong>).</p></li><li><p>the quality of an apology (<strong>the winback offer</strong>).</p></li></ul><p><strong>The quality of your offer directly impacts how long and profitable your renewed relationship with the customer will be</strong>.</p><p>Most companies use bland attempts of offering a generic discount that lack any form of personalization at all. You want to use the customer's name, reference why they left, and, if possible, incorporate both zero and first-party data to make your point. </p><p>In order to do that, there are three critical steps you need to be taking:</p><ol><li><p>Collecting data from the first customer lifetime. This could be transactional, behavioral, or ideally, direct customer feedback. </p></li><li><p>Finding out why customer churns. It&#8217;s easier with a subscription model where you can ask for the cancellation reason. With one-time purchases, it&#8217;s more challenging. However, you should be sending <strong>post-purchase surveys</strong>, monitoring and <strong>analyzing customer reviews</strong> and feedback to identify patterns indicating dissatisfaction.</p></li><li><p>Estimating the optimal waiting time (the winback period). More on that later.</p></li></ol><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png" width="1200" height="628" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/abecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:628,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:57153,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iAv0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabecca3d-0516-401c-a3a3-a3b4f5510767_1200x628.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h2><strong>Profitability always wins</strong></h2><p>The goal of your winback emails is to convince an inactive customer to return to your website and make a purchase. To achieve this, you have to include <strong>attention-grabbing content</strong> in your email, encompassing your offer, subject line, copy, and design, to stop your customers&#8217; scroll.</p><p>Sending weekly campaigns gets tougher when your customers have already seen something like 5 to 50 of your emails. It's even trickier when all those emails are pushing discounts. That's where many brands slip up &#8211; falling into the trap of '<strong>spray and pray</strong>' discounting.</p><p>First of all, imagine all the money you&#8217;re leaving on the table by giving out a discount when the customer would have purchased anyway.</p><p>This is what we call <strong>margin erosion</strong>. It's a tricky issue, not directly visible in your financials, but it deeply impacts your profitability.</p><p>Remember, profitability is king. To truly understand the extent of this problem, consider <strong>holdout tests with control groups</strong>. This approach will show you how much your discounts are actually affecting sales.</p><p>In addition, by spray and pray discounting, you&#8217;re also teaching all your customers to buy at discount. This brings an even higher cost, one that's also invisible&#8230; the <strong>cost of losing the value of a discount offer</strong>. You can lose ability to win customers over when you really need them.</p><p>If you want to play the long-term game, think about these strategic questions:</p><ol><li><p><strong>How long will a reacquired customer stay, and how much will they spend?</strong> You can track the retention of won-back customers and predict their average duration of stay. Surprisingly, often customers who defected due to price often stay the longest. Measure the LTV of second-time customers versus their initial run to see the upside of win-back strategies. </p></li><li><p><strong>Which people should get which offers?</strong> If you can, segment and personalize. For subscription brands, use at least cancellation reasons to inform your win-back campaigns. You can also segment customers based on their previous purchase history or preferences. You can send tailored offers to those who had high LTV, tried many products, left good reviews, or had satisfactorily resolved complaints.</p></li><li><p><strong>Which win-back strategy is most profitable?</strong> Consider the costs and returns of each offer. One strategy might have a low success rate but the highest ROI. As we discussed above, profit is always more crucial than vanity metrics like the number of active subscribers.</p></li></ol><p>The best approach will ultimately depend on your product, the zero-party data you have, the campaigns you&#8217;re running, your margins and discounting practices and more. Having said that, I want to include some best practices when it comes to email. Then we will move to direct mail and how it complements email when it comes to winback.</p><h3><strong>The 100M winback offer elements</strong></h3><p><strong>Optimal Waiting Time</strong></p><ul><li><p>Timing is critical. The ideal waiting period depends on your product and customer buying behavior.</p></li><li><p>Start by analyzing your historical order data to determine when customers typically exit the purchase lifecycle. This is where you get your first clues.</p></li><li><p>Next, set up conditional splits in Klaviyo to test different times and see which ones really click with your audience. For a lot of products, especially consumables, starting with a 60-90 day mark is a good bet.</p></li><li><p>Take a look at when most of your customers usually come back for more &#8211; about 75% of them. Find that sweet spot, then time your win-back campaign right around then. </p></li><li><p>Dig deeper and check the following: what is the average timing between 1st and 2nd purchase? Get even more segmented by looking at specific products/combinations. Then check what is the average timing between 2nd and 3rd purchase.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Effective Subject Lines</strong></p><ul><li><p>The first point of engagement, subject lines must be concise (preferably under 40 characters), attention-grabbing, and convey urgency or exclusivity. Personalization, such as including the recipient&#8217;s name, can significantly increase open rates.</p></li><li><p>Continually A/B test different elements of your emails, including subject lines to CTAs and content.</p></li><li><p>Get familiar with Klaviyo&#8217;s open rate stats:</p><ul><li><p>Win-back emails with subject lines similar to &#8220;It&#8217;s been a while&#8221; earn average open rates of 27%</p></li><li><p>Win-back emails with subject lines similar to &#8220;We miss you&#8221; earn average open rates of 24%</p></li><li><p>Win-back emails with subject lines containing &#8220;Discount&#8221; earn average open rates of 20%</p></li></ul></li><li><p>Play on the fomo:</p><ul><li><p><em>Everyone&#8217;s raving about this</em></p></li><li><p><em>Only 5 must-have, celeb endorsed, xxx left!</em></p></li></ul></li><li><p>Make it feel like your brand is saying goodbye to the customer</p><ul><li><p><em>This is the last email you&#8217;ll see.</em></p></li></ul></li><li><p>Keep it simple and straightforward and immediately tell subscribers that there&#8217;s an incentive to buy</p><ul><li><p><em>We miss you. Here&#8217;s $20.</em></p></li></ul></li></ul><p><strong>Actionable CTAs</strong></p><ul><li><p>Your CTAs should be clear, compelling, and easy to act upon. They should guide customers towards the next step, whether it's revisiting your website, taking advantage of an offer, or providing feedback.</p></li><li><p>Use dynamic coupons with time sensitivity to add urgency.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Social Proof and Customer Feedback</strong></p><ul><li><p>Incorporate positive reviews and user testimonials to leverage the power of social proof. This approach can significantly enhance trust and credibility.</p></li><li><p>You can also proactively seek feedback to understand churn reasons and improve future campaigns. Incorporate feedback surveys in your emails to gather insights and show customers that their opinions are valued.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Balancing Frequency and Relevance</strong></p><ul><li><p>To get the most out of your win-back series without risking your sending reputation, send 2-5 emails.</p></li><li><p>Balance the frequency to avoid overwhelming or annoying your customers. Tailor the content to remain relevant and engaging over time.</p></li><li><p>If you notice&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://www.klaviyo.com/blog/revenue-per-recipient">revenue per recipient</a></strong>&nbsp;starting to drop after the first win-back email, that&#8217;s a good indicator that you can pull back on the number of emails you&#8217;re sending.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Alternative Shopping Options</strong></p><ul><li><p>Suggest alternative purchasing options if direct orders are declining. For example, directing customers to purchase through partner retailers or alternative platforms.</p></li><li><p>Extend engagement beyond the digital realm. Invite customers to interact with your brand in physical stores or through community events.</p></li></ul><h2>Direct mail winback</h2><p>Email and direct mail aren&#8217;t competitors; they&#8217;re complimentary channels in a smart DTC playbook.</p><p>Email is cheaper and faster to send. Direct mail has more engagement.</p><p>I will write a separate piece on direct mail as a channel, but for now let&#8217;s focus on how to integrate it with email winback.</p><p>Let&#8217;s say you&#8217;re a subscription brand and you tailored your email flows to different cancellation reasons. </p><p>Then you can simply <strong>use the same segments as you do for the email winback</strong>, but send postcards only to people who didn&#8217;t open the emails (which could be 50%). It can be done easily with Klaviyo + PostPilot for example.</p><p>Each segment can get a unique postcard with offers and messaging aligned to the cancellation reason. If customers had too much of a product, the postcard can be send a bit later and has an invitation to replenish. Those who cited "too expensive"&nbsp;as a reason can be nudged to restart their subscription with a 20% discount etc.</p><h2>Segments to test with direct mail</h2><ol><li><p><strong>The VIP winback not engaging</strong> [customers who bought 3+ times, LOD (last order date - depends on the product) 60+ days ago, not engaging with email].</p></li><li><p><strong>The VIP winback lapsed</strong> [customers who bought 3+ times,&nbsp;LOD 90+ days ago].</p></li><li><p><strong>The VIP winback recent</strong> [customers who bought 3+ times,&nbsp;LOD 31+ days ago]. The more recent the campaign, the better it is to do a holdout test with a control group / check attribution by eliminating retargeting and Klaviyo UTMs from the final list of buyers.</p></li><li><p><strong>Email optouts winback</strong> [customers who bought 1+ times, opted out of the email list, LOD 31+ days ago]. It can have a lower ROAS, which makes sense because people don&#8217;t want to hear from you, but it&#8217;s the only way to reach to those customers so I strongly recommend testing it, and they are still a better audience than cold traffic.</p></li><li><p><strong>Lapsed subs winback</strong> - for subscription brands, I recommend targeting one-time-buyers (and experimenting with the last order date) with an offer to subscribe with a site-wide discount.  </p></li></ol><p>I recommend testing all of these segments with the same offer, to see which of your brands&#8217; customers are the most responsive to direct mail. If your segment size allows it, do a holdout test. If not, try to at least check the &#8220;pure&#8221; direct mail conversions that are not affected by retargeting ads or emails by excluding UTMs. </p><p>Until next time,</p><p>Marcin</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/how-9-figure-dtc-brands-think-about/comments&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Leave a comment&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/how-9-figure-dtc-brands-think-about/comments"><span>Leave a comment</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Retention metrics: the survivor bias and cohort retention]]></title><description><![CDATA[How to get a true reflection of customer loyalty over time.]]></description><link>https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/retention-metrics-101-the-survivor</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/p/retention-metrics-101-the-survivor</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Marcin Mleczko]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 18 Dec 2023 14:26:02 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e0139337-cfcc-4240-89b1-a5f58becf121_1200x628.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At their core, all retention metrics assess one thing: <strong>do customers keep using your product?</strong></p><p>There are two types of retention we can measure: aggregate (overall) retention and cohort retention. </p><h3>Aggregate vs cohort retention</h3><p>Aggregate retention is a broad measure of how well a business retains its customers over a period of time. You can find it in Shopify under &#8220;<strong>Returning Customer Rate</strong>&#8221;.</p><p>It&#8217;s calculated as the percentage of customers who engage with your business or make repeat purchases within a specific timeframe.</p><p>While this offers a quick snapshot of customer loyalty across all segments, it doesn&#8217;t account for differences in behavior between newer and older customer groups.</p><p>Using aggregate retention alone can lead to <strong>survivor bias</strong>&#8212;where the metric is skewed by older, loyal customers while masking churn among newer cohorts.</p><p>Let me explain.</p><p>Imagine you have two groups of customers, "good" and "bad". </p><p>The good ones stay with you 70% of the time, and the bad ones only 20% of the time. </p><p>Let's say you start with 500 in each group. After a year, you'd expect to keep 350 of the good customers (because 70% of 500 is 350) and only 100 of the bad ones (since 20% of 500 is 100).</p><p>As time goes on, this pattern continues. </p><p>You keep losing more of the bad customers and retaining more of the good ones. </p><p>This changes the makeup of your customer base &#8211; there are more "good" customers over time and your overall retention rate might look like it's improving &#8211; it could go from 45% to 70% in five years. </p><p>But this increase isn't because each customer is more likely to stay. </p><p>It's because the group of customers who are naturally more likely to stay (the good ones) is becoming a bigger part of your overall customer base. This is the "survivor bias".</p><p>The customers who are naturally more likely to stick around are increasingly dominating your customer base, making your retention rates look better than they really are. </p><p>Therefore it's best to track retention rates for groups based on when they made their first purchase (cohorts).</p><p>Let's explore how it applies to a DTC subscription model.</p><h3>How to analyze cohort retention</h3><p>The most common form of retention for a DTC subscription brand is order retention.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png" width="502" height="409.2541208791209" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1187,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:502,&quot;bytes&quot;:146599,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3o5i!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F138e35ea-2e3a-4949-bcb4-0d0b17616366_1570x1280.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Let&#8217;s assume 1000 people signed up for your product for a monthly subscription in January. </p><p>We&#8217;ll refer to them as the &#8220;January Cohort&#8221; (i.e., the people who signed up in January). </p><p>In Month 0 (M0), the January Cohort consists of all 1000 members who initially signed up. This is our starting point for tracking retention.</p><p>As we move into the first month (M1), 800 of these members make another purchase. </p><p>This means that our order retention rate for the January Cohort in M1 is 80% (800/1000).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png" width="630" height="143.22115384615384" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:331,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:630,&quot;bytes&quot;:47360,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!L8dT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc1160d8b-7fb2-4c7f-89ed-f18fed582c9f_1576x358.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Fast forward to the fifth month (M5), and 430 members are still actively purchasing. </p><p>This translates to an order retention rate of 43% for the January Cohort at M5.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png" width="622" height="283.65934065934067" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:664,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:622,&quot;bytes&quot;:87200,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dZNL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8d701de8-7467-475d-8d10-d1846b3fd0b4_1592x726.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Now, let's take a closer look at the retention rates as we progress further. </p><p>Interestingly, as we reach the twelfth month (M12), the retention rate remains steady from the eleventh month (M11), <strong>indicating a stabilization in customer retention</strong>. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png" width="614" height="503.93543956043953" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1195,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:614,&quot;bytes&quot;:147469,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3IPp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7bf7c48b-bb69-417e-a262-91aca94f0764_1572x1290.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>This steady retention rate might hint at a loyal customer base that's found value in the subscription, leading us to hope for a steady or increasing retention rate in the thirteenth month (M13).</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png" width="568" height="369.99018003273324" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:796,&quot;width&quot;:1222,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:568,&quot;bytes&quot;:109758,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UHAJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4c51571-ce87-4e37-896e-da7bafcaf414_1222x796.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">The x-axis shows the months from the initial signup (M0) to 12 months later (M12), and the y-axis shows the retention rate in percentage.</figcaption></figure></div><p>Graphs like this provide a clear view of how the retention rate changes over time for the cohort, highlighting the pattern of decline and stabilization.</p><p><strong>But here's where things get even more intriguing. </strong></p><p>You can go one step further and slice the data differently, to uncover deeper insights into which types of customers retain the best. </p><p>For instance, we can analyze the January Cohort by subscription plans and acquisition sources.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png" width="618" height="381.444976076555" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:774,&quot;width&quot;:1254,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:618,&quot;bytes&quot;:153181,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FQFn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c3ce867-dd54-4888-92f4-78ff105c789e_1254x774.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Members who subscribed to the <strong>Premium Plan</strong> <strong>show a slower decline in retention compared to the general cohort</strong>. </p><p>By the twelfth month (M12), they maintain a higher retention rate, reflecting their sustained engagement and satisfaction with the service. </p><p>This highlights the Premium Plan's effectiveness in fostering long-term customer loyalty.</p><p>In contrast, customers acquired through the <strong>Flash Sale Campaign</strong> <strong>demonstrate a markedly quicker decline in retention</strong>. </p><p>Their retention rate drops significantly faster than the average, indicating that while such campaigns might be effective in attracting new sign-ups, they pose challenges in sustaining long-term customer engagement. </p><p>This raises important considerations for balancing the allure of short-term gains against the need for lasting customer relationships.</p><h3>Wrapping up</h3><p>I hope you can see now why segmenting your customer base and understanding the different behaviors and preferences within each segment is so valuable. </p><p>By identifying the characteristics of our most loyal subscribers, you can tailor your marketing and product development strategies to better meet their needs and preferences, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty. </p><p>Thanks for reading,<br>Marcin</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.retentionledgrowth.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Retention-Led Growth is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>